Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs the 100-119 X posts range at a near-certain implied probability for Elon Musk's activity from May 5 to May 12, 2026, driven by real-time tallies showing the count already locked in that bin as the window closes today at 12:00 PM ET. Musk's uncharacteristically subdued social media presence this week—amid his high-profile China trip addressing Tesla's Full Self-Driving and robotaxi challenges—has capped output well below his typical 15-20 daily average, with only sporadic posts like a deleted tax quip noted in the final hours. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects precise tracking of main feed posts, but a realistic upset could stem from an unexpected tweet storm tied to breaking Tesla or SpaceX news before cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour100-119 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$10,850,290 Vol.
$10,850,290 Vol.
<20
Non
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
Yes
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500+
No
100-119 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$10,850,290 Vol.
$10,850,290 Vol.
<20
Non
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
Yes
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs the 100-119 X posts range at a near-certain implied probability for Elon Musk's activity from May 5 to May 12, 2026, driven by real-time tallies showing the count already locked in that bin as the window closes today at 12:00 PM ET. Musk's uncharacteristically subdued social media presence this week—amid his high-profile China trip addressing Tesla's Full Self-Driving and robotaxi challenges—has capped output well below his typical 15-20 daily average, with only sporadic posts like a deleted tax quip noted in the final hours. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects precise tracking of main feed posts, but a realistic upset could stem from an unexpected tweet storm tied to breaking Tesla or SpaceX news before cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes