The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBaisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?
Oui
$105,161 Vol.
$105,161 Vol.
Oui
$105,161 Vol.
$105,161 Vol.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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