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Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?

icon for Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?

Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?

déc. 31

déc. 31

Oui

10% chance
Polymarket

$105,161 Vol.

Oui

10% chance
Polymarket

$105,161 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$105,161
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$105,161
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Baisse d'urgence du taux directeur de la Fed avant 2027 ? » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 10¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ? » a généré $105.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ? » est « Baisse d'urgence du taux directeur de la Fed avant 2027 ? » à 10%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.