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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Élections·Élection Française

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Élections·Élection Française

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

NOUVEAU
23 avr. 2027
Polymarket

$9,815 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$87 Vol.

41%

Jordan Bardella

$890 Vol.

62%

Michel Barnier

$141 Vol.

11%

Valérie Pécresse

$156 Vol.

10%

Gabriel Attal

$549 Vol.

93%

Élisabeth Borne

$81 Vol.

40%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$104 Vol.

27%

Jean Castex

$64 Vol.

20%

Gérald Darmanin

$144 Vol.

11%

Sébastien Lecornu

$75 Vol.

47%

François Bayrou

$463 Vol.

10%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

51%

Carole Delga

$148 Vol.

17%

Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

48%

François Hollande

$132 Vol.

57%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$81 Vol.

50%

Manuel Bompard

$63 Vol.

16%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,383 Vol.

99%

Mathilde Panot

$84 Vol.

8%

Dominique de Villepin

$14 Vol.

58%

Marine Le Pen

$67 Vol.

54%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth presidential bid has clarified the left’s early positioning ahead of the April 2027 vote, while term-limited President Macron’s exit opens the center-right field. Key developments include Édouard Philippe’s recent campaign launch as a leading centrist contender and the Republicans’ nomination of Bruno Retailleau. On the right, Marine Le Pen’s potential five-year office ban faces a July 2027 appeals ruling, with Jordan Bardella positioned as her likely successor if needed. Left-wing fragmentation persists, with a planned October 2026 primary among socialists and greens still uncertain. These candidacy announcements and legal timelines directly shape trader assessments of who will formally enter the race in the coming months.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Date de fin
23 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth presidential bid has clarified the left’s early positioning ahead of the April 2027 vote, while term-limited President Macron’s exit opens the center-right field. Key developments include Édouard Philippe’s recent campaign launch as a leading centrist contender and the Republicans’ nomination of Bruno Retailleau. On the right, Marine Le Pen’s potential five-year office ban faces a July 2027 appeals ruling, with Jordan Bardella positioned as her likely successor if needed. Left-wing fragmentation persists, with a planned October 2026 primary among socialists and greens still uncertain. These candidacy announcements and legal timelines directly shape trader assessments of who will formally enter the race in the coming months.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$9,815
Date de fin
23 avr. 2027
Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 21 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Jean-Luc Mélenchon » à 99%, suivi de « Gabriel Attal » à 93%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 99¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 22, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? », parcourez les 21 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? » est « Jean-Luc Mélenchon » à 99%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Gabriel Attal » à 93%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.