The limited May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship—13 total cases and three deaths, contained and declared over by WHO in July—drives the 96.2% market-implied odds against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic. Andes virus, the sole hantavirus strain with documented person-to-person spread, transmits only via prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens like influenza. Most hantaviruses spread zoonotically through rodent urine, droppings, or saliva, producing sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases without sustained chains. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm extremely low global risk, consistent with historical patterns of localized outbreaks in the Americas and no evidence of variant evolution enabling broader transmission.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Pandémie d'hantavirus en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$17,838,819 Vol.
$17,838,819 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$17,838,819 Vol.
$17,838,819 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship—13 total cases and three deaths, contained and declared over by WHO in July—drives the 96.2% market-implied odds against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic. Andes virus, the sole hantavirus strain with documented person-to-person spread, transmits only via prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens like influenza. Most hantaviruses spread zoonotically through rodent urine, droppings, or saliva, producing sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases without sustained chains. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm extremely low global risk, consistent with historical patterns of localized outbreaks in the Americas and no evidence of variant evolution enabling broader transmission.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,838,819Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship—13 total cases and three deaths, contained and declared over by WHO in July—drives the 96.2% market-implied odds against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic. Andes virus, the sole hantavirus strain with documented person-to-person spread, transmits only via prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens like influenza. Most hantaviruses spread zoonotically through rodent urine, droppings, or saliva, producing sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases without sustained chains. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm extremely low global risk, consistent with historical patterns of localized outbreaks in the Americas and no evidence of variant evolution enabling broader transmission.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,838,819Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The limited May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship—13 total cases and three deaths, contained and declared over by WHO in July—drives the 96.2% market-implied odds against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic. Andes virus, the sole hantavirus strain with documented person-to-person spread, transmits only via prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens like influenza. Most hantaviruses spread zoonotically through rodent urine, droppings, or saliva, producing sporadic Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases without sustained chains. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm extremely low global risk, consistent with historical patterns of localized outbreaks in the Americas and no evidence of variant evolution enabling broader transmission.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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