Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on July 3?
Highest temperature in Ankara on July 3?
32°C 46%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
30°C 9.7%
NOUVEAU
$19,662 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$19,662 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
10%
31°C
28%
32°C
46%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 46%
31°C 28%
33°C 13%
30°C 9.7%
NOUVEAU
$19,662 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$19,662 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
28°C or below
$717 Vol.
1%
29°C
$4,927 Vol.
6%
30°C
$833 Vol.
10%
31°C
$2,855 Vol.
28%
32°C
$2,405 Vol.
46%
33°C
$5,244 Vol.
13%
34°C
$851 Vol.
3%
35°C
$476 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$383 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$655 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$19,662Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,662Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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