**Short-term forecasts from multiple meteorological sources point to a maximum temperature in Chengdu of 32–34°C on July 4, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes around 33–35°C.** Chengdu’s subtropical monsoon climate typically brings peak summer highs near 30–31°C in early July, but recent model guidance shows slightly elevated values under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds and moderate humidity. Variability stems from potential afternoon cloud build-up or isolated showers, which could cap temperatures near 32–33°C, versus clearer skies allowing brief peaks near 34–35°C. Official outlooks emphasize the influence of regional steering patterns and diurnal heating in the Sichuan Basin, with minimal risk of extremes above 36°C or below 31°C given the current setup. Traders appear to weigh these narrow forecast spreads, reflected in the tight clustering of implied probabilities near the expected range.