Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
36°C 43%
37°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 juin 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
7%
35°C
14%
36°C
43%
37°C
34%
38°C
8%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
36°C 43%
37°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
19 juin 2026
33°C or below
$530 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,691 Vol.
7%
35°C
$1,150 Vol.
14%
36°C
$1,333 Vol.
43%
37°C
$720 Vol.
34%
38°C
$1,159 Vol.
8%
39°C
$478 Vol.
1%
40°C
$356 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ET
Volume
$8,024Date de fin
19 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,024Date de fin
19 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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