Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?
26°C 38%
25°C 29%
27°C 21%
24°C 7.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 juil. 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
7%
25°C
29%
26°C
38%
27°C
21%
28°C
5%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 38%
25°C 29%
27°C 21%
24°C 7.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 juil. 2026
21°C or below
$440 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$323 Vol.
1%
23°C
$83 Vol.
1%
24°C
$162 Vol.
7%
25°C
$321 Vol.
29%
26°C
$3,204 Vol.
38%
27°C
$118 Vol.
21%
28°C
$40 Vol.
5%
29°C
$59 Vol.
2%
30°C
$48 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$26 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,826Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,826Date de fin
4 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs and ensemble guidance indicate a moderating high-pressure pattern over the Kanto region on July 4, supporting maximum temperatures near the 26–27 °C range that currently dominate market-implied odds. This aligns with Tokyo’s early-July climatology (normal daily maximum 28.7 °C) while reflecting a brief respite from the late-June heatwave that produced multiple days above 35 °C. Above-normal seasonal guidance from the Pacific High extension keeps 28 °C and higher outcomes viable if subsidence strengthens, yet current steering flow and marine influence temper extreme upside. Updated JMA and global model outputs expected over the next 48 hours will refine land-sea breeze effects and boundary-layer moisture critical to final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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