Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms elevated activity along major subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia's Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 quake near Ende, Indonesia, on August 14, both well above the 6.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale. These, combined with one additional confirmed M6.5+ event within the period, align with the market's 96% implied probability for exactly three such earthquakes by week's end. Global rates average roughly one to two events of this size weekly, but clustered tectonic stress release in active margins has driven the current tally. New aftershock sequences or unreported offshore events could push the final count to four if magnitudes are revised upward before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus du 10 août au 16 août ?
3 91.5%
4 3.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
91%
4
3%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 91.5%
4 3.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
91%
4
3%
5
1%
>5
1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Source de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms elevated activity along major subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, including a magnitude 7.4 event in Colombia's Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 quake near Ende, Indonesia, on August 14, both well above the 6.5 threshold on the moment magnitude scale. These, combined with one additional confirmed M6.5+ event within the period, align with the market's 96% implied probability for exactly three such earthquakes by week's end. Global rates average roughly one to two events of this size weekly, but clustered tectonic stress release in active margins has driven the current tally. New aftershock sequences or unreported offshore events could push the final count to four if magnitudes are revised upward before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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