Escalating military exchanges in the US-Israel-Iran conflict continue to drive trader assessments of further Israeli airspace closures. A July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire triggered renewed strikes and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting EASA advisories on regional risks and temporary measures such as the June interception response to a Yemen-launched missile. Israeli airspace has reopened after multiple February-July closures tied to Iranian missile and drone retaliation, yet remains volatile with limited airline resumption to Tel Aviv. Key factors include ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalation thresholds, and scheduled security reviews that could prompt rapid shutdowns for civilian flights amid active threats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$27,326,746 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
5%
30 septembre
9%
$27,326,746 Vol.
31 août
$1,294,250 Vol.
5%
30 septembre
$615 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges in the US-Israel-Iran conflict continue to drive trader assessments of further Israeli airspace closures. A July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire triggered renewed strikes and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting EASA advisories on regional risks and temporary measures such as the June interception response to a Yemen-launched missile. Israeli airspace has reopened after multiple February-July closures tied to Iranian missile and drone retaliation, yet remains volatile with limited airline resumption to Tel Aviv. Key factors include ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalation thresholds, and scheduled security reviews that could prompt rapid shutdowns for civilian flights amid active threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,326,746Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military exchanges in the US-Israel-Iran conflict continue to drive trader assessments of further Israeli airspace closures. A July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire triggered renewed strikes and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting EASA advisories on regional risks and temporary measures such as the June interception response to a Yemen-launched missile. Israeli airspace has reopened after multiple February-July closures tied to Iranian missile and drone retaliation, yet remains volatile with limited airline resumption to Tel Aviv. Key factors include ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalation thresholds, and scheduled security reviews that could prompt rapid shutdowns for civilian flights amid active threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,326,746Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating military exchanges in the US-Israel-Iran conflict continue to drive trader assessments of further Israeli airspace closures. A July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire triggered renewed strikes and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting EASA advisories on regional risks and temporary measures such as the June interception response to a Yemen-launched missile. Israeli airspace has reopened after multiple February-July closures tied to Iranian missile and drone retaliation, yet remains volatile with limited airline resumption to Tel Aviv. Key factors include ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalation thresholds, and scheduled security reviews that could prompt rapid shutdowns for civilian flights amid active threats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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