Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained risks of Iranian missile and drone threats that previously prompted multiple short-notice closures and reopenings of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July. Israeli authorities have kept commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport open in August following security assessments, with the transportation minister citing stable conditions amid ongoing volatility and EASA advisories on potential disruptions. Trader consensus reflects these developments through low implied probabilities for near-term full closures, while diplomatic signals, further strikes, or retaliatory launches remain key variables that could alter airspace status before late-2026 resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$27,330,409 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
3%
30 septembre
9%
$27,330,409 Vol.
31 août
$1,297,913 Vol.
3%
30 septembre
$615 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained risks of Iranian missile and drone threats that previously prompted multiple short-notice closures and reopenings of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July. Israeli authorities have kept commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport open in August following security assessments, with the transportation minister citing stable conditions amid ongoing volatility and EASA advisories on potential disruptions. Trader consensus reflects these developments through low implied probabilities for near-term full closures, while diplomatic signals, further strikes, or retaliatory launches remain key variables that could alter airspace status before late-2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,330,409Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained risks of Iranian missile and drone threats that previously prompted multiple short-notice closures and reopenings of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July. Israeli authorities have kept commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport open in August following security assessments, with the transportation minister citing stable conditions amid ongoing volatility and EASA advisories on potential disruptions. Trader consensus reflects these developments through low implied probabilities for near-term full closures, while diplomatic signals, further strikes, or retaliatory launches remain key variables that could alter airspace status before late-2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,330,409Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained risks of Iranian missile and drone threats that previously prompted multiple short-notice closures and reopenings of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July. Israeli authorities have kept commercial operations at Ben Gurion Airport open in August following security assessments, with the transportation minister citing stable conditions amid ongoing volatility and EASA advisories on potential disruptions. Trader consensus reflects these developments through low implied probabilities for near-term full closures, while diplomatic signals, further strikes, or retaliatory launches remain key variables that could alter airspace status before late-2026 resolution dates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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