Trader consensus prices "No" at a 90% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data logging no such events in 2026 to date amid steady global seismicity without anomalous foreshock swarms or strain accumulation on major subduction zones. A magnitude 7.7 quake off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating local Nankai Trough megaquake risk to 1% for the following week—10 times normal levels—but the window expired without escalation, easing concerns. Historically, M8+ events average once yearly via unpredictable fault ruptures, yet current quiet periods and lack of targeted warnings keep short-term odds low; monitor USGS significant earthquake lists for real-time updates through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMéga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Méga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30 juin 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at a 90% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data logging no such events in 2026 to date amid steady global seismicity without anomalous foreshock swarms or strain accumulation on major subduction zones. A magnitude 7.7 quake off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating local Nankai Trough megaquake risk to 1% for the following week—10 times normal levels—but the window expired without escalation, easing concerns. Historically, M8+ events average once yearly via unpredictable fault ruptures, yet current quiet periods and lack of targeted warnings keep short-term odds low; monitor USGS significant earthquake lists for real-time updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$66,081Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices "No" at a 90% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data logging no such events in 2026 to date amid steady global seismicity without anomalous foreshock swarms or strain accumulation on major subduction zones. A magnitude 7.7 quake off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating local Nankai Trough megaquake risk to 1% for the following week—10 times normal levels—but the window expired without escalation, easing concerns. Historically, M8+ events average once yearly via unpredictable fault ruptures, yet current quiet periods and lack of targeted warnings keep short-term odds low; monitor USGS significant earthquake lists for real-time updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$66,081Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at a 90% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting United States Geological Survey (USGS) data logging no such events in 2026 to date amid steady global seismicity without anomalous foreshock swarms or strain accumulation on major subduction zones. A magnitude 7.7 quake off northern Japan on April 20 prompted a brief Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating local Nankai Trough megaquake risk to 1% for the following week—10 times normal levels—but the window expired without escalation, easing concerns. Historically, M8+ events average once yearly via unpredictable fault ruptures, yet current quiet periods and lack of targeted warnings keep short-term odds low; monitor USGS significant earthquake lists for real-time updates through resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes