Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability for no megaquake (magnitude 9.0 or greater) by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—only five recorded globally since 1900—and the scientific consensus from USGS and other agencies that short-term forecasts beyond days are impossible due to undetectable precursors. Recent global seismic data shows no anomalous activity; the largest in 2026 was a magnitude 7.7 off Japan in late April, prompting Japan's Meteorological Agency to note a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ there, far below megaquake thresholds and now subsided. Ongoing USGS monitoring of high-risk zones like Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals steady strain accumulation but no imminent triggers, with normal background seismicity in the past 30 days justifying the strong "No" positioning amid inherent geological unpredictability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMéga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Méga tremblement de terre d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
30 juin 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability for no megaquake (magnitude 9.0 or greater) by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—only five recorded globally since 1900—and the scientific consensus from USGS and other agencies that short-term forecasts beyond days are impossible due to undetectable precursors. Recent global seismic data shows no anomalous activity; the largest in 2026 was a magnitude 7.7 off Japan in late April, prompting Japan's Meteorological Agency to note a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ there, far below megaquake thresholds and now subsided. Ongoing USGS monitoring of high-risk zones like Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals steady strain accumulation but no imminent triggers, with normal background seismicity in the past 30 days justifying the strong "No" positioning amid inherent geological unpredictability.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$66,081Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability for no megaquake (magnitude 9.0 or greater) by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—only five recorded globally since 1900—and the scientific consensus from USGS and other agencies that short-term forecasts beyond days are impossible due to undetectable precursors. Recent global seismic data shows no anomalous activity; the largest in 2026 was a magnitude 7.7 off Japan in late April, prompting Japan's Meteorological Agency to note a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ there, far below megaquake thresholds and now subsided. Ongoing USGS monitoring of high-risk zones like Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals steady strain accumulation but no imminent triggers, with normal background seismicity in the past 30 days justifying the strong "No" positioning amid inherent geological unpredictability.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$66,081Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability for no megaquake (magnitude 9.0 or greater) by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—only five recorded globally since 1900—and the scientific consensus from USGS and other agencies that short-term forecasts beyond days are impossible due to undetectable precursors. Recent global seismic data shows no anomalous activity; the largest in 2026 was a magnitude 7.7 off Japan in late April, prompting Japan's Meteorological Agency to note a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ there, far below megaquake thresholds and now subsided. Ongoing USGS monitoring of high-risk zones like Cascadia and Nankai Trough reveals steady strain accumulation but no imminent triggers, with normal background seismicity in the past 30 days justifying the strong "No" positioning amid inherent geological unpredictability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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