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Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

icon for Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026
Politique·Récompenses

Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 9%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.3%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,688,363 Vol.

Donald Trump 10%

Yulia Navalnaya 9%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 6.3%

UNRWA 5.1%

Polymarket

$17,688,363 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$3,377,592 Vol.

10%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$159,832 Vol.

9%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$500,327 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,851 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$611,247 Vol.

4%

icon for Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV

$698,916 Vol.

3%

icon for La Cour internationale de Justice

La Cour internationale de Justice

$760,536 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$544,627 Vol.

2%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,196,945 Vol.

1%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,141,899 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$909,167 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$952,530 Vol.

1%

icon for Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres

Titre de l’élément de groupe : António Guterres

$421,315 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$454,448 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$715,998 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$818,202 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$503,654 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Poutine

Vladimir Poutine

$744,985 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$733,566 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$496,790 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The recent public disclosure of 287 nominees has opened up the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize race, leaving traders with a tightly contested field where Donald Trump holds a slight edge at 9.5% implied probability on the back of high-profile diplomatic endorsements from regional leaders. Close behind, Yulia Navalnaya’s 8.5% reflects sustained momentum from her human-rights advocacy profile, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 6.3% underscores ongoing conflict-resolution narratives amid global tensions. Organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice add further fragmentation, mirroring the committee’s history of favoring collective winners when no single frontrunner builds decisive campaign traction. With the October ceremony still months away, fresh advocacy milestones or breakthrough developments could quickly shift the current evenly matched dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,688,363
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The recent public disclosure of 287 nominees has opened up the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize race, leaving traders with a tightly contested field where Donald Trump holds a slight edge at 9.5% implied probability on the back of high-profile diplomatic endorsements from regional leaders. Close behind, Yulia Navalnaya’s 8.5% reflects sustained momentum from her human-rights advocacy profile, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 6.3% underscores ongoing conflict-resolution narratives amid global tensions. Organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice add further fragmentation, mirroring the committee’s history of favoring collective winners when no single frontrunner builds decisive campaign traction. With the October ceremony still months away, fresh advocacy milestones or breakthrough developments could quickly shift the current evenly matched dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,688,363
Date de fin
10 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Questions fréquentes

« Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 20 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Donald Trump » à 10%, suivi de « Yulia Navalnaya » à 9%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 10¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » a généré $17.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Oct 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 », parcourez les 20 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » est « Donald Trump » à 10%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Yulia Navalnaya » à 9%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lauréat du prix Nobel de la paix 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.