**Recent stability in the U.S. labor market underpins trader focus on a September unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%.** The August reading held steady at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above expectations—while the labor force expanded and the employment-to-population ratio edged higher. This resilience follows several months of modest job gains and a participation rate recovering from earlier lows, keeping the headline rate anchored despite seasonal volatility in the household survey. Market-implied odds reflect this base-rate consistency, tempered by typical month-to-month noise and uncertainty around September’s data. Key near-term inputs include the September CPI and PPI releases, plus the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which could shape views on labor-market momentum ahead of the October 2 employment report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,1 % 36%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 16%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
5%
3,9 %
5%
4,0 %
16%
4,1 %
36%
4,2 %
26%
4,3 %
11%
4,4 %
6%
4,5 %
8%
≥ 4,6 %
4%
4,1 % 36%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 16%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
$589 Vol.
5%
3,9 %
$105 Vol.
5%
4,0 %
$62 Vol.
16%
4,1 %
$657 Vol.
36%
4,2 %
$84 Vol.
26%
4,3 %
$62 Vol.
11%
4,4 %
$176 Vol.
6%
4,5 %
$505 Vol.
8%
≥ 4,6 %
$505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Recent stability in the U.S. labor market underpins trader focus on a September unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%.** The August reading held steady at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above expectations—while the labor force expanded and the employment-to-population ratio edged higher. This resilience follows several months of modest job gains and a participation rate recovering from earlier lows, keeping the headline rate anchored despite seasonal volatility in the household survey. Market-implied odds reflect this base-rate consistency, tempered by typical month-to-month noise and uncertainty around September’s data. Key near-term inputs include the September CPI and PPI releases, plus the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which could shape views on labor-market momentum ahead of the October 2 employment report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,746Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Recent stability in the U.S. labor market underpins trader focus on a September unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%.** The August reading held steady at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above expectations—while the labor force expanded and the employment-to-population ratio edged higher. This resilience follows several months of modest job gains and a participation rate recovering from earlier lows, keeping the headline rate anchored despite seasonal volatility in the household survey. Market-implied odds reflect this base-rate consistency, tempered by typical month-to-month noise and uncertainty around September’s data. Key near-term inputs include the September CPI and PPI releases, plus the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which could shape views on labor-market momentum ahead of the October 2 employment report.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,746Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Recent stability in the U.S. labor market underpins trader focus on a September unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%.** The August reading held steady at 4.1%, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above expectations—while the labor force expanded and the employment-to-population ratio edged higher. This resilience follows several months of modest job gains and a participation rate recovering from earlier lows, keeping the headline rate anchored despite seasonal volatility in the household survey. Market-implied odds reflect this base-rate consistency, tempered by typical month-to-month noise and uncertainty around September’s data. Key near-term inputs include the September CPI and PPI releases, plus the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, which could shape views on labor-market momentum ahead of the October 2 employment report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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