Trader consensus on September nonfarm payrolls reflects broad uncertainty in the labor market, with the 50k–100k jobs added range holding only a slim lead at 26% implied probability amid closely matched buckets. Recent August employment data and August CPI releases have shown moderating job growth alongside easing price pressures, prompting traders to price in a wide range of outcomes rather than a single consensus path. Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate trajectory and Treasury yield movements have reinforced this dispersion, as markets weigh the potential for further softening against resilient demand signals. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent high-frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift positioning before the early October BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en septembre ?
Combien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en septembre ?
50 000 à 100 000 26%
100 000 à 150 000 22%
0 à 50 000 20%
-50 000 à 0 12%
<-50k
9%
-50 000 à 0
12%
0 à 50 000
20%
50 000 à 100 000
26%
100 000 à 150 000
22%
150k à 200k
5%
200k+
5%
50 000 à 100 000 26%
100 000 à 150 000 22%
0 à 50 000 20%
-50 000 à 0 12%
<-50k
9%
-50 000 à 0
12%
0 à 50 000
20%
50 000 à 100 000
26%
100 000 à 150 000
22%
150k à 200k
5%
200k+
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Source de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on September nonfarm payrolls reflects broad uncertainty in the labor market, with the 50k–100k jobs added range holding only a slim lead at 26% implied probability amid closely matched buckets. Recent August employment data and August CPI releases have shown moderating job growth alongside easing price pressures, prompting traders to price in a wide range of outcomes rather than a single consensus path. Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate trajectory and Treasury yield movements have reinforced this dispersion, as markets weigh the potential for further softening against resilient demand signals. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent high-frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims represent key upcoming catalysts that could shift positioning before the early October BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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