Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6—below the 55.2 consensus and down from July’s 55.6—has tempered expectations for the September reading, with trader-implied probabilities clustered across the low-to-mid 50s amid closely matched odds. Moderating new orders (53.7), elevated prices paid (71.1), and slower supplier deliveries (59.3) reflect persistent cost pressures from tariffs, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and AI-driven input demand, even as production held near 58.3 and the sector marked its eighth straight expansion month. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty over whether September survey responses will show further demand cooling or stabilization ahead of the October 1 release, consistent with the post-2025 recovery trajectory and broader labor-market and monetary-policy backdrop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour50,0 à 50,9 29%
53,0 à 53,9 26%
51,0 à 51,9 25%
56,0 à 56,9 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
<50,0
6%
50,0 à 50,9
29%
51,0 à 51,9
25%
52,0 à 52,9
14%
53,0 à 53,9
26%
54,0 à 54,9
19%
55,0 à 55,9
24%
56,0 à 56,9
25%
57,0 à 57,9
25%
58,0+
18%
50,0 à 50,9 29%
53,0 à 53,9 26%
51,0 à 51,9 25%
56,0 à 56,9 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
<50,0
$160 Vol.
6%
50,0 à 50,9
$17 Vol.
29%
51,0 à 51,9
$17 Vol.
25%
52,0 à 52,9
$34 Vol.
14%
53,0 à 53,9
$18 Vol.
26%
54,0 à 54,9
$16 Vol.
19%
55,0 à 55,9
$32 Vol.
24%
56,0 à 56,9
$18 Vol.
25%
57,0 à 57,9
$17 Vol.
25%
58,0+
$26 Vol.
18%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6—below the 55.2 consensus and down from July’s 55.6—has tempered expectations for the September reading, with trader-implied probabilities clustered across the low-to-mid 50s amid closely matched odds. Moderating new orders (53.7), elevated prices paid (71.1), and slower supplier deliveries (59.3) reflect persistent cost pressures from tariffs, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and AI-driven input demand, even as production held near 58.3 and the sector marked its eighth straight expansion month. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty over whether September survey responses will show further demand cooling or stabilization ahead of the October 1 release, consistent with the post-2025 recovery trajectory and broader labor-market and monetary-policy backdrop.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$354Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6—below the 55.2 consensus and down from July’s 55.6—has tempered expectations for the September reading, with trader-implied probabilities clustered across the low-to-mid 50s amid closely matched odds. Moderating new orders (53.7), elevated prices paid (71.1), and slower supplier deliveries (59.3) reflect persistent cost pressures from tariffs, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and AI-driven input demand, even as production held near 58.3 and the sector marked its eighth straight expansion month. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty over whether September survey responses will show further demand cooling or stabilization ahead of the October 1 release, consistent with the post-2025 recovery trajectory and broader labor-market and monetary-policy backdrop.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$354Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6—below the 55.2 consensus and down from July’s 55.6—has tempered expectations for the September reading, with trader-implied probabilities clustered across the low-to-mid 50s amid closely matched odds. Moderating new orders (53.7), elevated prices paid (71.1), and slower supplier deliveries (59.3) reflect persistent cost pressures from tariffs, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and AI-driven input demand, even as production held near 58.3 and the sector marked its eighth straight expansion month. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty over whether September survey responses will show further demand cooling or stabilization ahead of the October 1 release, consistent with the post-2025 recovery trajectory and broader labor-market and monetary-policy backdrop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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