**Ongoing US sanctions pressure and sharply reduced Iranian oil exports continue to drive rial depreciation, positioning the 2.2M+ bin as the leading trader consensus for end-September.** New Treasury measures announced in late August, including expanded targeting of financial networks, shipping, and secondary sanctions threats, have compounded the effects of a six-month naval blockade that has cut crude loadings by over 70-80% from prior levels. Market rates recently hit record lows near 2.02–2.04 million rials per dollar amid 66% annual inflation and a reported 25–35% contraction in foreign trade. Central bank interventions and official reassurances have not reversed street-market weakness, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. With roughly one month until resolution, sustained export shortfalls and import-driven demand for hard currency keep probabilities concentrated on further weakening or elevated levels around current highs.