The 50% market odds reflect a balance between the Trump administration’s June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release government review of “covered frontier models” and the recent lifting of export controls on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 after the company added safeguards. Those models were briefly disabled industry-wide in mid-June following a Commerce Department directive limiting foreign-national access on national-security grounds, creating precedent for restricted public rollout. OpenAI has similarly agreed to government vetting of users for its latest releases. Key swing factors include enforcement of the 30-day access window, upcoming frontier-model launches, and any new licensing requirements that could again curtail broad availability before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 50% market odds reflect a balance between the Trump administration’s June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release government review of “covered frontier models” and the recent lifting of export controls on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 after the company added safeguards. Those models were briefly disabled industry-wide in mid-June following a Commerce Department directive limiting foreign-national access on national-security grounds, creating precedent for restricted public rollout. OpenAI has similarly agreed to government vetting of users for its latest releases. Key swing factors include enforcement of the 30-day access window, upcoming frontier-model launches, and any new licensing requirements that could again curtail broad availability before year-end.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 50% market odds reflect a balance between the Trump administration’s June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release government review of “covered frontier models” and the recent lifting of export controls on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 after the company added safeguards. Those models were briefly disabled industry-wide in mid-June following a Commerce Department directive limiting foreign-national access on national-security grounds, creating precedent for restricted public rollout. OpenAI has similarly agreed to government vetting of users for its latest releases. Key swing factors include enforcement of the 30-day access window, upcoming frontier-model launches, and any new licensing requirements that could again curtail broad availability before year-end.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 50% market odds reflect a balance between the Trump administration’s June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release government review of “covered frontier models” and the recent lifting of export controls on Anthropic’s Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 after the company added safeguards. Those models were briefly disabled industry-wide in mid-June following a Commerce Department directive limiting foreign-national access on national-security grounds, creating precedent for restricted public rollout. OpenAI has similarly agreed to government vetting of users for its latest releases. Key swing factors include enforcement of the 30-day access window, upcoming frontier-model launches, and any new licensing requirements that could again curtail broad availability before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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