Geopolitical supply disruptions from heightened US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices above $100 per barrel in mid-May 2026. Recent EIA data show sharp inventory draws amid 10.5 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut-ins, supporting near-term backwardation in the futures curve despite softer global demand forecasts and robust Atlantic Basin supply. Market-implied odds incorporate this risk premium, tempered by expectations that flows may gradually resume after late May. Key upcoming catalysts include the next EIA weekly petroleum status report and the June OPEC+ ministerial meeting, which could adjust quotas amid evolving labor market signals and inflation trends influencing broader energy demand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$18,262,471 Vol.
↑ 200 $
1%
↑ 150 $
2%
↑ 140 $
3%
↑ 130 $
10%
↑ 120 $
20%
↑ 115 $
34%
↑ 110 $
59%
↑ 105 $
83%
↓ 95 $
60%
↓ 90 $
38%
↓ 85 $
20%
↓ 80 $
11%
↓ 70 $
3%
↓ 60 $
1%
↓ 40 $
<1%
↓ 20 $
<1%
↓ 50 $
1%
↓ 30 $
<1%
$18,262,471 Vol.
↑ 200 $
1%
↑ 150 $
2%
↑ 140 $
3%
↑ 130 $
10%
↑ 120 $
20%
↑ 115 $
34%
↑ 110 $
59%
↑ 105 $
83%
↓ 95 $
60%
↓ 90 $
38%
↓ 85 $
20%
↓ 80 $
11%
↓ 70 $
3%
↓ 60 $
1%
↓ 40 $
<1%
↓ 20 $
<1%
↓ 50 $
1%
↓ 30 $
<1%
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Marché ouvert : Apr 25, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day).
The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.
For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Source de résolution
https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTIResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical supply disruptions from heightened US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices above $100 per barrel in mid-May 2026. Recent EIA data show sharp inventory draws amid 10.5 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut-ins, supporting near-term backwardation in the futures curve despite softer global demand forecasts and robust Atlantic Basin supply. Market-implied odds incorporate this risk premium, tempered by expectations that flows may gradually resume after late May. Key upcoming catalysts include the next EIA weekly petroleum status report and the June OPEC+ ministerial meeting, which could adjust quotas amid evolving labor market signals and inflation trends influencing broader energy demand.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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