Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for the biggest 2026 opening week, driven by its actual July 31 release performance that delivered domestic estimates exceeding $300 million and global figures approaching $465 million in the first weekend. This real-world result, which propelled the film past $1 billion worldwide within days and overtook Toy Story 5 as the year's top earner, reflects strong fan demand for the Tom Holland-Zendaya MCU entry and effective counter-programming against superhero fatigue. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 37.5% on the strength of December 18 pre-sales momentum and trailer buzz positioning it as a potential holiday record-breaker, though its shorter 2026 window creates uncertainty. Later releases like Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register minimal implied probabilities given their earlier or more distant tracking and historical franchise benchmarks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 38%
Toy Story 5 <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$69,491 Vol.
$69,491 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
38%
Toy Story 5
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 38%
Toy Story 5 <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$69,491 Vol.
$69,491 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$16,597 Vol.
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
$20,528 Vol.
38%
Toy Story 5
$3,501 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,314 Vol.
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for the biggest 2026 opening week, driven by its actual July 31 release performance that delivered domestic estimates exceeding $300 million and global figures approaching $465 million in the first weekend. This real-world result, which propelled the film past $1 billion worldwide within days and overtook Toy Story 5 as the year's top earner, reflects strong fan demand for the Tom Holland-Zendaya MCU entry and effective counter-programming against superhero fatigue. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 37.5% on the strength of December 18 pre-sales momentum and trailer buzz positioning it as a potential holiday record-breaker, though its shorter 2026 window creates uncertainty. Later releases like Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register minimal implied probabilities given their earlier or more distant tracking and historical franchise benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$69,491Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for the biggest 2026 opening week, driven by its actual July 31 release performance that delivered domestic estimates exceeding $300 million and global figures approaching $465 million in the first weekend. This real-world result, which propelled the film past $1 billion worldwide within days and overtook Toy Story 5 as the year's top earner, reflects strong fan demand for the Tom Holland-Zendaya MCU entry and effective counter-programming against superhero fatigue. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 37.5% on the strength of December 18 pre-sales momentum and trailer buzz positioning it as a potential holiday record-breaker, though its shorter 2026 window creates uncertainty. Later releases like Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register minimal implied probabilities given their earlier or more distant tracking and historical franchise benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$69,491Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads market-implied odds at 56.5% for the biggest 2026 opening week, driven by its actual July 31 release performance that delivered domestic estimates exceeding $300 million and global figures approaching $465 million in the first weekend. This real-world result, which propelled the film past $1 billion worldwide within days and overtook Toy Story 5 as the year's top earner, reflects strong fan demand for the Tom Holland-Zendaya MCU entry and effective counter-programming against superhero fatigue. Avengers: Doomsday trails at 37.5% on the strength of December 18 pre-sales momentum and trailer buzz positioning it as a potential holiday record-breaker, though its shorter 2026 window creates uncertainty. Later releases like Toy Story 5, Dune: Messiah, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register minimal implied probabilities given their earlier or more distant tracking and historical franchise benchmarks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes