The UFC heavyweight title race remains wide open heading into the final stretch of 2026, with traders assigning nearly identical implied probabilities to Jailton Almeida, Serghei Spivac, Sergei Pavlovich, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and Ante Delija. Current undisputed champion Tom Aspinall sits at 40 percent despite his strong recent form, largely because of the lingering effects of his October 2025 eye-poke no-contest against Ciryl Gane that has kept him sidelined and opened the door for interim-title contention in upcoming bouts. A deep pool of ranked contenders, each carrying recent wins or stylistic advantages that could shift momentum quickly, continues to compress the field, while veterans like Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane retain realistic paths through experience and knockout power. This balanced distribution reflects the division’s lack of a clear long-term frontrunner and the high variance inherent in heavyweight matchups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSergei Pavlovich 47.7%
Jailton Almeida 46.9%
Derrick Lewis 39.4%
Ciryl Gane 27%
$97,776 Vol.
$97,776 Vol.
Sergei Pavlovich
48%
Jailton Almeida
47%
Derrick Lewis
39%
Ciryl Gane
27%
Alexander Volkov
10%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tom Aspinall
36%
Serghei Spivac
47%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
47%
Ante Delija
43%
Sergei Pavlovich 47.7%
Jailton Almeida 46.9%
Derrick Lewis 39.4%
Ciryl Gane 27%
$97,776 Vol.
$97,776 Vol.
Sergei Pavlovich
48%
Jailton Almeida
47%
Derrick Lewis
39%
Ciryl Gane
27%
Alexander Volkov
10%
Marcin Tybura
1%
Curtis Blaydes
<1%
Tom Aspinall
36%
Serghei Spivac
47%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
47%
Ante Delija
43%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The UFC heavyweight title race remains wide open heading into the final stretch of 2026, with traders assigning nearly identical implied probabilities to Jailton Almeida, Serghei Spivac, Sergei Pavlovich, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and Ante Delija. Current undisputed champion Tom Aspinall sits at 40 percent despite his strong recent form, largely because of the lingering effects of his October 2025 eye-poke no-contest against Ciryl Gane that has kept him sidelined and opened the door for interim-title contention in upcoming bouts. A deep pool of ranked contenders, each carrying recent wins or stylistic advantages that could shift momentum quickly, continues to compress the field, while veterans like Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane retain realistic paths through experience and knockout power. This balanced distribution reflects the division’s lack of a clear long-term frontrunner and the high variance inherent in heavyweight matchups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes