**Paramount Skydance holds an 80.5% implied probability after securing a definitive $110.9 billion all-cash agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery in February 2026, followed by overwhelming shareholder approval in April.** The U.S. Department of Justice recently closed its antitrust review, removing a major regulatory hurdle and reinforcing trader consensus around successful closing. Earlier bidding rounds saw Netflix initially favored for studios and streaming assets before Paramount’s revised full-company tender prevailed, prompting Netflix to withdraw. Comcast’s partial-asset interest drew limited traction. The 13% probability assigned to no closing by June 30, 2027, accounts for remaining state-level reviews and standard deal timelines, while Netflix and Comcast options reflect diminished competitive positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourParamount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery expected to close in Q3 2026
Paramount jumps to 81%5%
Following Netflix’s withdrawal and regulatory approvals, Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery is on track to close in the third quarter of 2026, effectively ending the bidding war and confirming Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%1%
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing the final regulatory obstacles and paving the way for the deal to close in Q3 2026. This regulatory clearance solidified Paramount's position as the acquirer.
Regulators clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission approved Paramount's acquisition, removing final regulatory obstacles for the $110 billion merger.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice granted approval for Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, allowing the $110 billion deal to proceed. This regulatory clearance was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer.
U.S. Department of Justice clears Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The DOJ approved Paramount Skydance’s acquisition without requiring remedies, clearing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for deal closure.
Comcast withdraws bid for Warner Bros. Discovery after Paramount win
Comcast announced it had dropped its bid after Paramount’s deal cleared regulatory hurdles, pushing the Comcast probability down to virtually zero.
U.S. Department of Justice approves Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 83%4%
The DOJ cleared Paramount Skydance's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after an eight-month antitrust investigation, removing a major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for deal closure.
US Department of Justice signals likely approval of Paramount-Warner Bros. merger
US antitrust regulators indicated a positive stance toward approving Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros., reducing regulatory uncertainty and supporting the completion of the deal.
U.S. Justice Department approves Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 82%8%
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared the $111 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, removing a major regulatory hurdle. The approval paves the way for the merger to close, though state attorneys general are preparing lawsuits to block the deal, and European regulators are still reviewing it.
DOJ antitrust division approves Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger
The U.S. Department of Justice announced antitrust approval of the Paramount‑Warner Bros. Discovery merger, removing the final regulatory hurdle and cementing Paramount’s lead in the market.
Department of Justice approves Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, concluding it would not harm competition. This regulatory approval was a critical step toward finalizing the acquisition, solidifying Paramount's position as the acquirer.
US Department of Justice approves Paramount's $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 81%2%
The DOJ's antitrust division approved Paramount's acquisition, removing the last major regulatory hurdle and paving the way for the deal's completion, which solidified Paramount as the acquirer and caused its market price to peak.
European Union and Austrian authorities expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
The European Union and Austrian Federal Competition Authority indicated expected approval of the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling regulatory clearance in key jurisdictions and advancing the deal toward completion.
European Union expected to approve Paramount-Warner Bros. deal by July 7, 2026
Paramount rises to 83%4%
The EU's anticipated approval of the Paramount acquisition deal reduced regulatory uncertainty, supporting the market's confidence in Paramount closing the acquisition within 2026.
Paramount's hostile bid remains active as shareholder tender deadline approaches
Paramount continued to extend its tender offer and push for shareholder support, maintaining market confidence in its hostile bid despite Warner Bros. Discovery's board support for Netflix.
Netflix reports solid Q4 but stock falls amid subscriber growth concerns
Netflix dips to 0%1%
Netflix reported strong financial results but slowing subscriber growth raised concerns, impacting its stock negatively. This added pressure on Netflix's ability to close the Warner Bros. acquisition, reflected in its market price decline to near zero.
Warner Bros. board reaffirms Netflix offer superior, urges shareholders to reject Paramount
Netflix dips to 0%2%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again recommended shareholders reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and debt concerns, and endorsed Netflix's offer as providing superior value and certainty, reinforcing Netflix's favored status in the acquisition race.
U.S. Department of Justice and FCC clear Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 82%2%
Regulatory approval from the DOJ and FCC removed the final major obstacles for Paramount's acquisition, solidifying the deal's likelihood and pushing market prices to near certainty for Paramount's win.
Paramount hit with antitrust lawsuit over Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
An antitrust lawsuit was filed against Paramount alleging the acquisition would reduce competition and harm consumers, introducing regulatory risk to the merger's completion and impacting market sentiment.
Warner Bros. CinemaCon show highlights upcoming films amid acquisition uncertainty
Paramount jumps to 80%10%
Warner Bros. showcased major upcoming films at CinemaCon, reflecting ongoing business as usual despite the pending acquisition battle. Industry concerns about consolidation effects on production and theaters were noted, influencing market sentiment about the acquisition's future.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders overwhelmingly approve Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition
Shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of Paramount’s acquisition, a key milestone toward closing the deal expected in Q3 2026, reinforcing Paramount’s position as the acquirer.
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve merger with Paramount Skydance
Shareholders of Warner Bros. Discovery voted to approve the acquisition by Paramount Skydance, clearing a major hurdle for the deal's completion. This event solidified Paramount's acquisition and was reflected in the market's high confidence in Paramount closing the deal.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4B equity financing for Paramount's Warner bid
Paramount rises to 77%3%
Larry Ellison, Oracle founder and father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's hostile bid, bolstering Paramount's financial backing and intensifying the takeover battle.
Paramount responds to industry opposition over Warner Bros. acquisition
Paramount drops to 72%5%
Paramount issued a statement defending its acquisition amid opposition from over 2,000 industry professionals concerned about the merger's impact on competition and creativity, reflecting ongoing regulatory and public scrutiny.
Paramount responds to open letter opposing Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount issued a statement defending the acquisition, emphasizing the benefits for creators and competition, amid opposition from over 2,000 industry professionals.
Netflix deal eclipsed as Paramount gains shareholder approval
Netflix dips to 1%2%
With Paramount’s shareholder vote and DOJ approval, the previously dominant Netflix deal became irrelevant, collapsing the “Netflix” probability to 1 % and eventually 0 % by late June.
Warner Bros. Discovery reiterates support for Netflix deal amid ongoing Paramount bid
Warner Bros. Discovery's leadership reaffirmed their commitment to the Netflix acquisition, emphasizing the superior value and certainty of the Netflix deal despite Paramount's ongoing hostile bid and proxy fight.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal to counter Paramount
Netflix dips to 1%1%
Netflix revised its $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery to an all-cash transaction, simplifying the deal structure to provide more certainty to shareholders and speed up the shareholder vote, strengthening its competitive position against Paramount's hostile bid.
Paramount completes $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount finalized the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share, reshaping the media landscape. The deal ended the months-long bidding war and confirmed Paramount as the acquirer of Warner Bros. studios and streaming businesses.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B bid challenging Netflix's $72B Warner Bros. deal
Paramount drops to 68%11%
Paramount publicly launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $77.9 billion in cash for the entire company, including cable assets Netflix does not want, escalating the bidding war and causing market volatility.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition race
Paramount jumps to 88%14%
Netflix announced it would no longer pursue the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing financial unattractiveness. This cleared the path for Paramount to finalize the acquisition, reflected in Paramount's price surge to 88%.
Warner board reaffirms support for Netflix merger
None by June 30, 2027 rises to 15%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board reiterated its recommendation that shareholders approve the Netflix acquisition, effectively diminishing the perceived viability of Paramount’s bid and causing the ‘None by June 30 2027’ outcome to dip further.
Paramount advances hostile takeover with plans to nominate own Warner Bros. board
Paramount dips to 74%2%
Paramount announced it would nominate its own slate of directors for Warner Bros. Discovery before the next shareholder meeting and filed a lawsuit to compel disclosure of Warner's valuation of bids, intensifying the hostile takeover attempt.
Warner Bros. rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix deal
Paramount rises to 14%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board again rejected Paramount's hostile takeover bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's offer. This reinforced market confidence in Netflix's deal but Paramount's bid remained active, keeping the contest alive.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery Agree to Blockbuster $110 Billion Merger
Paramount surges to 77%24%
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery officially signed a definitive merger agreement valued at $110 billion, with Paramount paying $31 per share in cash.
Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again, backs Netflix bid
Netflix dips to 2%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's hostile takeover offer, citing insufficient value and risks, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's $72 billion deal for the studios and streaming business, reinforcing Netflix's position in the market.
Paramount wins boardroom battle for Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition
Paramount jumps to 83%5%
Paramount Skydance secured control of Warner Bros. Discovery after the board determined its topping bid was superior, solidifying Paramount as the acquirer in the market.
Paramount Skydance secures Department of Justice approval for Warner Bros. acquisition
The U.S. Department of Justice cleared Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, finding no antitrust violations and stating the deal would likely strengthen competition. This regulatory approval was a major step toward closing the acquisition.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's final $31/share offer, ending pursuit
Paramount dips to 1%1%
Netflix chose not to increase its bid beyond Paramount's $31/share all-cash offer, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount and causing Netflix's market price to collapse.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. offer to all-cash transaction to counter Paramount
Netflix plunges to 2%48%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer to an all-cash deal valued at $72 billion to simplify the transaction and increase certainty for shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid.
Netflix declines to improve its Warner Bros. Discovery proposal
Netflix dips to 1%3%
Netflix publicly confirmed it would not renew its bid after Paramount’s superior offer, causing the Netflix probability to collapse to near‑zero (1 %).
Paramount extends $77.9B hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount dips to 76%3%
Paramount extended its tender offer deadline and doubled down on a proxy fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash for the entire company, challenging Netflix's $72 billion deal for just the studios and streaming business. This escalated the bidding war and increased market uncertainty.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 78%47%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to a $110 billion merger deal with Paramount Skydance, marking a decisive shift in the acquisition race and causing Paramount's market price to surge.
Paramount Skydance signs $110 bn deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 84%10%
Paramount Skydance signed a definitive acquisition agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery for $31 per share (≈$110 bn). The deal’s signing caused the Paramount outcome to surge to its highest levels (84‑88 %) and effectively eliminated the Netflix probability.
Warner Bros. Discovery ends merger talks with Paramount, shares dip
Warner Bros. Discovery halted merger talks with Paramount, signaling the end of the potential merger. This reduced uncertainty and shifted market confidence back towards Netflix, though Paramount remained a contender.
Warner Bros. Discovery board unanimously selects Paramount's $31 per share offer over Netflix's deal
After reviewing competing bids, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount's $31 per share all-cash offer was superior and signed a definitive agreement with Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 81%50%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance signed a merger agreement valued at over $110 billion, with Paramount offering $31 per share. This formalized Paramount as the leading acquirer and shifted market probabilities heavily in its favor.
Paramount Skydance submits superior $110 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros.
Paramount surges to 88%57%
Paramount Skydance announced a topping all-cash bid of $31 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $110 billion, surpassing Netflix's offer. This led Warner Bros. Discovery to terminate its agreement with Netflix and accept Paramount's proposal, causing a major shift in market expectations.
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery sign $110 billion merger agreement
Paramount surges to 79%48%
After Netflix declined to raise its offer, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount's $110 billion bid was superior. Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery signed a definitive merger agreement, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.
Netflix price collapses after market doubts on deal completion
Netflix plunges to 1%46%
Following reports that regulatory hurdles and the pending spin‑off of Warner’s cable assets could delay the Netflix acquisition, investor confidence eroded sharply, driving Netflix’s market price down to near zero.
Netflix drops Warner Bros. deal after White House visit
Netflix plunges to 0%45%
A CapWolf article reported that Netflix walked away from its Warner Bros. deal after a White House visit, confirming the deal’s collapse. The market’s “Netflix” probability fell to 1 % shortly thereafter and hit 0 % by late April.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery announce $110 billion acquisition deal
Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery entered into a definitive agreement for Paramount to acquire the entire company for approximately $110 billion, following the termination of the Netflix deal. This formalized Paramount as the winning bidder and caused market prices to reflect Paramount's dominance.
Netflix revises $72B Warner Bros. offer to all-cash deal
Netflix plunges to 2%46%
Netflix converted its original cash-and-stock offer into an all-cash transaction to simplify the deal and make it more attractive to Warner Bros. shareholders, aiming to counter Paramount's hostile bid. This move initially boosted Netflix's price but was insufficient to regain lost ground.
Paramount Skydance confirms $110 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Paramount Skydance confirmed its agreement to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery for $110 billion, marking the likely conclusion of the bidding war and setting the stage for regulatory approval and closing.
Warner Bros. Discovery board accepts Paramount’s $31 per share offer, ending Netflix deal
Paramount surges to 81%55%
After negotiations and Paramount raising its bid to $31 per share, Warner Bros. Discovery's board determined Paramount’s proposal was superior to Netflix’s and signed a definitive agreement, effectively ending Netflix’s acquisition attempt.
DOJ clears Paramount Skydance’s $110 bn Warner Bros. acquisition
The DOJ announced it would not block the Paramount‑Warner Bros. deal, removing a major regulatory obstacle and reinforcing market confidence in the Paramount outcome, keeping its price near the 84‑% peak.
Netflix withdraws from Warner Bros. acquisition after Paramount raises bid
Paramount surges to 83%79%
Netflix exited the bidding war after Paramount increased its all-cash offer to $31 per share, valuing the deal at $111 billion, effectively conceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Warner Bros. Discovery board declares Paramount’s offer superior, Netflix declines to raise bid
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board determined Paramount’s revised offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Netflix declines to improve offer, effectively exiting bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not raise its offer beyond $27.75 per share, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount, which had offered $31 per share.
Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reach agreement; Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 81%51%
After negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery determined Paramount’s revised proposal to acquire all outstanding shares for $31 per share was superior to Netflix’s deal. Netflix declined to improve its offer, effectively ceding the acquisition to Paramount.
Netflix declines to match Paramount's revised $31-per-share offer, ending pursuit
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount Skydance's revised $31-per-share all-cash offer, effectively ending its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and clearing the way for Paramount's acquisition subject to regulatory approval.
Warner Bros. Discovery considers Paramount's bid superior, Netflix declines to increase offer
Paramount surges to 81%50%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount's updated bid was superior, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its offer. Netflix declined, effectively exiting the bidding war, which shifted market confidence strongly toward Paramount.
Netflix exits bidding war, declines to raise offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively exiting the bidding war. This cleared the way for Paramount to become the leading bidder, shifting market expectations towards a Paramount acquisition.
Warner Bros. Discovery board determines Paramount's revised proposal superior, Netflix declines to improve offer
Paramount surges to 82%54%
After renewed negotiations, Warner Bros. Discovery's board found Paramount's updated offer superior, triggering a match period during which Netflix declined to raise its bid, effectively ending Netflix's pursuit and boosting Paramount's market price sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery deems Paramount’s revised $31/share offer superior, Netflix declines to match
Paramount surges to 81%51%
Warner Bros. Discovery confirmed Paramount’s updated $31 per share all-cash offer was superior to Netflix’s, triggering a period for Netflix to improve its bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer, effectively ending its pursuit and clearing the way for Paramount’s acquisition.
Netflix CEO visits White House amid antitrust concerns over Warner Bros. deal
Netflix plunges to 1%45%
Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos visited Washington to address antitrust concerns regarding the Warner Bros. acquisition, attempting to secure regulatory approval amid growing scrutiny and a renewed bidding war with Paramount.
Netflix Pulls Out of Warner Bros. Discovery Bidding Race
Netflix plunges to 4%36%
Netflix announced it would not match Paramount's higher valuation, abandoning its acquisition plans and clearing the path for Paramount to secure the deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery board deems Paramount's revised bid superior, triggers Netflix matching period
Paramount surges to 81%45%
WBD's board considered Paramount's updated $31/share all-cash offer superior to Netflix's, initiating a four-business-day window for Netflix to improve its bid, signaling a shift in acquisition likelihood towards Paramount.
Paramount submits revised acquisition proposal for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance submitted an updated bid to Warner Bros. Discovery addressing previous board concerns, attempting to re-engage leadership and compete with Netflix's offer in the ongoing acquisition battle.
Warner Bros. Discovery reviews revised Paramount Skydance acquisition proposal
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board reviewed a revised acquisition offer from Paramount Skydance, indicating ongoing negotiations and competition with Netflix's existing deal, impacting market probabilities.
Warner Bros. Discovery opens talks with Paramount amid Netflix merger support
Warner Bros. Discovery began a limited discussion period with Paramount to consider its higher offer, while continuing to support the Netflix merger. This created market volatility and uncertainty about the deal's outcome.
Netflix declines to raise offer, effectively exiting bidding war with Paramount
Paramount dips to 1%2%
Netflix announced it would not increase its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, effectively conceding the bidding war to Paramount Skydance, which had offered a higher all-cash price. This marked a turning point favoring Paramount's acquisition.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline for Warner Bros. shares
Paramount surges to 85%49%
Paramount extended the deadline for its tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. shares, signaling persistence in its hostile bid and causing a sharp rise in Paramount's market price as investors anticipated increased chances of success.
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Merger Discussions with Paramount Skydance Under Netflix Waiver
Paramount surges to 53%17%
WBD announced it would initiate a limited seven-day discussion window with Paramount Skydance to evaluate their improved offer, after Netflix granted a narrow waiver.
Paramount enhances bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount jumps to 36%5%
Paramount added a ticking fee and promised to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, making its offer more attractive and increasing pressure on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery's board.
Paramount sweetens bid with ticking fee and breakup fee coverage
Paramount Skydance enhanced its offer by adding a quarterly ticking fee and agreeing to cover Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee if the Netflix deal collapsed, aiming to make its bid more attractive and address shareholder concerns about deal certainty.
Paramount Submits Amended $30 Per Share Cash Proposal to Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount jumps to 36%8%
Paramount submitted an updated, formal proposal of $30 per share in cash, putting pressure on WBD's board to reconsider their support for the Netflix deal.
Paramount submits $30 per share hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount launched a hostile $108.4 billion all-cash bid at $30 per share to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and challenging the existing agreement. This intensified the bidding war and created uncertainty about the final acquirer.
Paramount revises offer, adds quarterly payout to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount surges to 81%45%
Paramount revised its offer, adding a per‑quarter payment to sweeten the deal. The announcement spurred the market’s “Paramount” price to jump from the low‑40s to a peak of 81 % on Mar 4, the highest level in the analysis window.
Paramount Skydance enhances bid with breakup fee coverage and ticking fee incentives
Paramount jumps to 36%6%
Paramount improved its offer by agreeing to cover Netflix's $5.8 billion breakup fee and adding a quarterly ticking fee to increase bid value if delayed, pressuring Netflix and WBD shareholders to reconsider.
Paramount adds shareholder incentives and ticking fee to Warner Bros. Discovery bid
Paramount jumps to 36%9%
Paramount Skydance enhanced its acquisition offer by including a $0.25 per share quarterly ticking fee for delays and agreeing to cover Warner Bros. Discovery's breakup fee owed to Netflix, increasing the attractiveness of its bid and pressuring shareholders.
Netflix intensifies bid with all-cash $72 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery studios and streaming
Netflix dips to 66%2%
Netflix revised its offer to an all-cash $72 billion bid to win over shareholders and counter Paramount's hostile takeover attempt, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix intensifies bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with all-cash offer
Netflix revised its acquisition offer to an all-cash $72 billion deal to win shareholder support and counter Paramount Skydance's hostile bid, aiming to simplify the transaction and accelerate shareholder approval.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amended their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal at $27.75 per share to increase deal certainty and speed shareholder vote. This move was partly to counter Paramount's hostile $30 per share bid.
Netflix amends Warner Bros. deal to all-cash offer amid Paramount's hostile bid
Netflix plunges to 42%15%
Netflix converted its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition offer to an all-cash deal to increase certainty and discourage competing bids, while Paramount Skydance launched a hostile tender offer at a higher price. This intensified the bidding war and caused volatility in market prices.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix drops to 45%11%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal to simplify the transaction and accelerate shareholder approval, but this move was insufficient to counter Paramount's higher bid, leading to Netflix's market price decline.
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery amend acquisition deal to all-cash transaction
Netflix surges to 71%15%
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery revised their acquisition agreement to an all-cash deal valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to provide greater certainty to shareholders and strengthen Netflix's position amid the bidding war.
Larry Ellison guarantees $40.4 billion for Paramount bid
Paramount drops to 78%7%
Oracle founder Larry Ellison pledged a personal guarantee for $40.4 billion of equity financing for Paramount’s offer, addressing concerns about the bid’s financing and temporarily boosting confidence in Paramount’s chance to close the deal.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount’s $108 billion leveraged buyout offer
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's amended $108.4 billion offer, citing it as a risky leveraged buyout with excessive debt and operational risks. The board recommended shareholders accept Netflix's lower but more secure cash-and-stock deal, influencing market confidence.
Netflix’s acquisition deal faces industry backlash and regulatory scrutiny
Netflix plunges to 4%34%
Hollywood creatives and theater owners expressed strong opposition to Netflix’s proposed acquisition, citing concerns over theatrical releases and market concentration, impacting market sentiment.
Warner Bros. board recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Netflix rises to 31%1%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board publicly rejected Paramount's hostile bid, citing significant risks and debt financing, and urged shareholders to support Netflix's offer, reinforcing Netflix's position despite Paramount's higher cash bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount’s revised offer, backs Netflix deal
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board formally rejected Paramount’s $30 per share hostile offer, reaffirming its support for the Netflix acquisition agreement, citing Paramount’s offer as inferior and riskier. This maintained Netflix’s position as the preferred acquirer at that time.
Warner Bros. Discovery rejects Paramount's hostile takeover bid, backs Netflix deal
Netflix rises to 26%4%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board rejected Paramount's $108.4 billion hostile takeover bid, citing excessive financial risk and uncertainty. The board reaffirmed support for the Netflix deal, which they deemed to offer greater certainty and long-term value for shareholders.
Larry Ellison personally guarantees $40.4B in Paramount's hostile bid
Paramount jumps to 31%8%
Larry Ellison, father of Paramount CEO David Ellison, personally guaranteed $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount's bid, strengthening the financial backing and credibility of the hostile offer. This caused a significant increase in Paramount's market price.
Netflix revises Warner Bros. Discovery deal to all-cash offer
Netflix jumps to 53%7%
Netflix amended its acquisition agreement to convert the deal into an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per share, aiming to simplify the deal and accelerate shareholder approval, reinforcing Netflix's position temporarily.
Paramount extends tender offer deadline to Jan 21
Paramount surges to 85%62%
Paramount announced an extension of its tender offer window, giving shareholders more time to consider its $77.9 billion proposal, which revived hopes for Paramount’s success and lifted its price sharply.
Warner board recommends shareholders back Netflix deal
Netflix plunges to 23%24%
Warner Bros. Discovery’s board issued a formal recommendation that shareholders reject Paramount’s bid and support Netflix’s acquisition, reinforcing market belief that Netflix is the likely acquirer and pushing the Netflix outcome higher.
Paramount revises offer, raises bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount rises to 74%2%
Paramount revised its tender, increasing the offer price and adding new financing guarantees, prompting a spike in the Paramount price (peak‑84% in June 2026) and a corresponding decline of the Netflix probability.
Analysts cite rising acquisition odds for Warner Bros. Discovery
None by June 30, 2027 plunges to 5%42%
A sharp drop in the “None by June 30 2027” price to 5 % coincided with market analysts noting the increasing likelihood of a deal, reducing the probability that no acquisition would occur.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $30/share offer, backs Netflix deal
Netflix surges to 59%35%
WBD's board formally rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's agreement, citing concerns over Paramount's leveraged buyout and financing risks, which kept Netflix favored by the board.
Netflix revises offer to all‑cash structure
Netflix plunges to 43%23%
Netflix announced it would convert its $72 billion bid for Warner’s studios and streaming business into an all‑cash deal, aiming to simplify the transaction and sway shareholders away from Paramount’s proposal, causing Netflix’s price to surge.
Analysts question whether Netflix‑Warner deal will close
None by June 30, 2027 drops to 16%8%
After Netflix’s initial announcement, the market briefly shifted toward the 'None' outcome as analysts weighed whether the deal would close; the price dipped to the lowest point (16 %) for the ‘None’ option.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount challenged Netflix's friendly deal by making a hostile all-cash offer worth $77.9 billion for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable assets Netflix does not want, increasing its market probability sharply.
Warner Bros. Discovery board rejects Paramount's $108 billion bid, supports Netflix deal
Netflix jumps to 31%5%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board unanimously rejected Paramount's higher bid, reaffirming support for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal, citing risks and regulatory concerns with Paramount's offer, which maintained Netflix as the favored acquirer.
Warner Bros. recommends shareholders reject Paramount's offer in favor of Netflix's
Paramount plunges to 32%16%
Warner Bros. Discovery's board urged shareholders to reject Paramount's hostile bid, citing risks and costs, and to support Netflix's offer, which it deemed superior. This led to a decline in Paramount's price and a temporary rebound in Netflix's price.
Paramount files Delaware suit demanding valuation details of its bid
Paramount plunges to 28%20%
Paramount Skydance sued Warner Bros. Discovery in Delaware Chancery Court to force disclosure of how the company values Paramount’s offer versus Netflix’s, intensifying the takeover contest and boosting Paramount’s odds.
Paramount Skydance launches hostile $108 billion all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance made a hostile takeover bid of $30 per share, totaling $108 billion, to acquire all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks. This offer surpassed Netflix's and introduced significant competition, causing market uncertainty and a drop in Netflix's acquisition probability.
Paramount launches hostile $108.4 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid offering $30 per share in cash for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, valuing the company at $108.4 billion. This bid challenged Netflix's deal and included the entire company, including cable networks, unlike Netflix's offer which excluded them.
Paramount launches hostile all-cash $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 83%35%
Paramount Skydance made a superior all-cash offer to acquire the entire Warner Bros. Discovery, including cable networks, surpassing Netflix’s offer and intensifying the bidding war.
Netflix announces $82.7 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses
Netflix surges to 69%23%
Netflix publicly announced a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max, marking a historic shift and initially positioning Netflix as the likely acquirer.
Paramount Skydance submits $30‑per‑share hostile tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount Skydance launched an all‑cash hostile tender offer (≈$30 per share) for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, directly challenging Netflix’s agreement and causing a sharp rise in the Paramount outcome and a rapid collapse of the Netflix probability.
Comcast withdraws from Warner Bros. bidding, citing low likelihood of success
Comcast plunges to 2%31%
Comcast acknowledged its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery was unlikely to succeed due to a cash-light offer compared to rivals Netflix and Paramount, leading to its withdrawal from the bidding process early on.
Paramount Skydance submits hostile $108.4 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer by about $18 billion. This intensified the bidding war and challenged Netflix's position as the likely acquirer.
Netflix announces $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Netflix struck a friendly agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses for $72 billion, setting the initial market expectation for Netflix to close the acquisition.
Paramount launches hostile $77.9B takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 77%29%
Paramount initiated a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, surpassing Netflix's $72 billion friendly offer. This move sparked a bidding war and caused Paramount's market price to rise sharply while Netflix's price began to decline.
Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Control of Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount plunges to 25%23%
Paramount Skydance launched an aggressive counter-bid of $108.4 billion ($30 per share) for the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, challenging Netflix's pending partial acquisition.
Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share
Paramount plunges to 24%24%
Paramount Skydance responded to Netflix's deal by launching a hostile all-cash tender offer at $30 per share, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at $108.4 billion, challenging Netflix's acquisition and escalating the bidding war.
Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount surges to 87%39%
Paramount Skydance submitted a hostile all-cash bid of $108.4 billion to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, surpassing Netflix's offer and intensifying the bidding war. This caused a sharp increase in the market price for the Paramount outcome and a decline for Netflix.
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