Anthropic’s strong lead at 67% implied probability stems from Claude Opus 4.7’s April 2026 release, which delivered superior instruction-following and nuanced output control that traders associate with style adherence tasks. Recent benchmarks highlight its edge in natural prose and constraint-based generation over competitors, reinforcing trader consensus around consistent performance in large language model evaluations. Google’s 22% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s February updates and solid multimodal reasoning gains, yet it trails on precise stylistic constraints. OpenAI’s lower 5.5% positioning follows GPT-5.5’s late-April launch, where overall intelligence scores improved but style-specific benchmarks have not yet shifted market sentiment decisively. With end-of-June resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations could still alter these dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,279 Vol.
$1,455,279 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,279 Vol.
$1,455,279 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
$30,031 Vol.
67%
$18,325 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,298 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,928 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,475 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,847 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,119 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,328 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,668 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,313 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,620 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,783 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,585 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s strong lead at 67% implied probability stems from Claude Opus 4.7’s April 2026 release, which delivered superior instruction-following and nuanced output control that traders associate with style adherence tasks. Recent benchmarks highlight its edge in natural prose and constraint-based generation over competitors, reinforcing trader consensus around consistent performance in large language model evaluations. Google’s 22% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s February updates and solid multimodal reasoning gains, yet it trails on precise stylistic constraints. OpenAI’s lower 5.5% positioning follows GPT-5.5’s late-April launch, where overall intelligence scores improved but style-specific benchmarks have not yet shifted market sentiment decisively. With end-of-June resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations could still alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,455,279Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s strong lead at 67% implied probability stems from Claude Opus 4.7’s April 2026 release, which delivered superior instruction-following and nuanced output control that traders associate with style adherence tasks. Recent benchmarks highlight its edge in natural prose and constraint-based generation over competitors, reinforcing trader consensus around consistent performance in large language model evaluations. Google’s 22% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s February updates and solid multimodal reasoning gains, yet it trails on precise stylistic constraints. OpenAI’s lower 5.5% positioning follows GPT-5.5’s late-April launch, where overall intelligence scores improved but style-specific benchmarks have not yet shifted market sentiment decisively. With end-of-June resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations could still alter these dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,455,279Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s strong lead at 67% implied probability stems from Claude Opus 4.7’s April 2026 release, which delivered superior instruction-following and nuanced output control that traders associate with style adherence tasks. Recent benchmarks highlight its edge in natural prose and constraint-based generation over competitors, reinforcing trader consensus around consistent performance in large language model evaluations. Google’s 22% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro’s February updates and solid multimodal reasoning gains, yet it trails on precise stylistic constraints. OpenAI’s lower 5.5% positioning follows GPT-5.5’s late-April launch, where overall intelligence scores improved but style-specific benchmarks have not yet shifted market sentiment decisively. With end-of-June resolution approaching, any new capability demonstrations could still alter these dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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