The near-certain 96.5% market-implied odds on “No” for a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 stem from the climatological fact that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, with May systems historically rare. National Hurricane Center and NOAA records show that only a handful of tropical cyclones have reached hurricane strength before late May in the satellite era, and none have made U.S. landfall after mid-May in recent decades. Current sea-surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain below the 26.5 °C threshold typically needed for rapid intensification, while atmospheric conditions lack the organized disturbances or steering patterns required for development. The primary remaining uncertainty is an unusually early tropical wave that could briefly organize; however, NHC model guidance and ensemble runs continue to show negligible probability through the end of the month.