Banksy’s established pattern of releasing multiple authenticated street works annually, including confirmed pieces in May, September, and December 2025 plus an April 2026 London statue, underpins the 76% market-implied odds for a new mural or installation by year-end. Traders weigh the roughly three-and-a-half months remaining against the artist’s unpredictable but recurring output tied to holidays, political moments, or London appearances, reinforced by recent Instagram activity highlighting ongoing engagement. While no 2026 works have emerged since spring, historical precedent and the artist’s anonymous, event-responsive approach sustain consensus that at least one fresh stencil or intervention will surface before December 31, though the window for late-year surprises remains a key swing factor.