Ongoing U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to constrain Iran's oil exports and access to foreign currency, sustaining pressure on the rial's value against the dollar. In April 2026 the free-market rate reached record lows near 1.8 million rials per dollar amid heightened inflation and revenue shortfalls, though official figures have hovered closer to 1.3 million in early May. Traders monitor any shifts in enforcement of secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers or diplomatic signals that could ease or intensify these constraints before the May 31 resolution window. With the rial's trajectory tied directly to export volumes and inflation trends, market pricing reflects expectations of further depreciation unless a verifiable de-escalation occurs in the coming weeks.