Japan enters the expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia, with recent results against top sides and a technically skilled squad featuring Takefusa Kubo and others fueling expectations of group advancement. The absence of Kaoru Mitoma due to injury and questions over goal-scoring depth create uncertainty about how far the side can progress beyond the initial knockout round. In the new format, where eight third-place teams also reach the Round of 32, traders see a near-even split between elimination at that stage and a deeper run, reflecting Japan’s solid but not elite ranking, difficult potential matchups, and the inherent variability of knockout football where upsets remain common.