**Marilyn Crawford holds the clearest lead in the Ajax, ON mayoral race at 63.5% implied probability, reflecting her long record as regional councillor and multiple-term deputy mayor.** The open seat created by incumbent Shaun Collier’s decision not to seek re-election has drawn a field that includes former councillor Ashmeed Khan at 21.5% and several lower-probability contenders such as Vian Persad, Richard Hinds, and Carion Fenn. With nominations closed in late August and voting set for October 19–26, traders appear to price Crawford’s decades of municipal and regional experience, high prior vote share, and visibility as the dominant factor. Limited public polling and a small number of serious candidates contribute to the wide spread between the top two and the rest of the field, including many generic or low-visibility options at 50%. No major late developments have altered the positioning in recent weeks.