Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, where trader consensus assigns the party a 97.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, combined with Crawford’s unopposed primary path and the Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, underpin this positioning. Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds typical of the region’s voting patterns and low Democratic baseline turnout. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical precedent and current ratings indicate limited scope for such shifts before November 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAR -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
AR -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$25,906 वॉल्यूम
$25,906 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
98%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
2%
$25,906 वॉल्यूम
$25,906 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$15,992 वॉल्यूम
98%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$9,914 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, where trader consensus assigns the party a 97.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, combined with Crawford’s unopposed primary path and the Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, underpin this positioning. Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds typical of the region’s voting patterns and low Democratic baseline turnout. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical precedent and current ratings indicate limited scope for such shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25,906समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, where trader consensus assigns the party a 97.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, combined with Crawford’s unopposed primary path and the Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, underpin this positioning. Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds typical of the region’s voting patterns and low Democratic baseline turnout. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical precedent and current ratings indicate limited scope for such shifts before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$25,906समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas’s 1st congressional district, where trader consensus assigns the party a 97.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s consistent Republican margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles, combined with Crawford’s unopposed primary path and the Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, underpin this positioning. Democratic nominee Terri Yarbrough Green faces structural headwinds typical of the region’s voting patterns and low Democratic baseline turnout. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical precedent and current ratings indicate limited scope for such shifts before November 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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