Incumbent Republican Brad Knott holds a clear edge in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district, an R+8 seat he won by 17 points in 2024, with forecasters rating the race Likely Republican after recent shifts from Solid. Knott’s fundraising lead of $1.7 million to Paul Barringer’s $1.2 million, combined with strong primary performance and Republican primary turnout dynamics, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent. Barringer’s campaign has gained visibility through Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeting and early ad buys, narrowing the implied probability gap as early voting approaches the November 3 general election. A Libertarian candidate on the ballot adds minor vote-splitting potential but does not alter the core two-party contest.