AAP leads trader consensus for the 2027 Punjab Legislative Assembly election at 46.5% implied probability, ahead of INC at 34.5%, BJP at 13.5%, and SAD at 10.8%, reflecting its incumbency advantage and recent municipal election strength. Early candidate announcements, including Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s renomination from Dhuri, alongside electoral roll revisions and Election Commission preparations, have reinforced AAP positioning ahead of the February-March vote. Recent defections of several AAP MLAs to BJP and ongoing talks of a BJP-SAD alliance introduce volatility, while internal Congress dynamics and emerging Panthic factions add uncertainty. Polls show AAP projected to secure a majority in many surveys, yet vote-share erosion and multi-cornered competition keep probabilities closely balanced and sensitive to alliance developments or further shifts in voter sentiment.