Recent election results from September 20, 2026, underpin the strong market consensus around 30-34 seats for the CDU in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus. Official tallies placed the party at 18.8% of the vote, yielding exactly 34 seats amid a fragmented outcome where Linke led with 25.7% and 47 seats, followed by AfD at 16.3%. Pre-election polling had shown CDU support eroding from its 2023 levels under the outgoing grand coalition, with a late leadership shift to Stefan Evers failing to reverse the decline. High turnout near 74% and clear final counts have reinforced trader confidence in this range. Limited upside scenarios include unresolved recounts or certification adjustments, though these appear improbable given the established margins and seat formula.