Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin election, with Die Linke and CDU trading narrow leads near 20 percent, followed closely by AfD and the Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member system’s 78 constituencies, creates uncertainty over direct-mandate wins that trigger overhang and leveling seats beyond the 130 statutory minimum. Traders assign the highest probabilities to totals below 148 because current surveys suggest limited constituency overperformance by any single party relative to list shares, producing only modest expansion. Shifts in late turnout, constituency-level swings, or threshold crossings could alter the overhang calculation and widen the range.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया<143 24%
158–162 21%
143–147 19%
148–152 16%
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
<143
24%
143–147
19%
148–152
16%
153–157
16%
158–162
21%
163+
8%
<143 24%
158–162 21%
143–147 19%
148–152 16%
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
<143
$119 वॉल्यूम
24%
143–147
$934 वॉल्यूम
19%
148–152
$20 वॉल्यूम
16%
153–157
$123 वॉल्यूम
16%
158–162
$842 वॉल्यूम
21%
163+
$81 वॉल्यूम
8%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin election, with Die Linke and CDU trading narrow leads near 20 percent, followed closely by AfD and the Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member system’s 78 constituencies, creates uncertainty over direct-mandate wins that trigger overhang and leveling seats beyond the 130 statutory minimum. Traders assign the highest probabilities to totals below 148 because current surveys suggest limited constituency overperformance by any single party relative to list shares, producing only modest expansion. Shifts in late turnout, constituency-level swings, or threshold crossings could alter the overhang calculation and widen the range.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,119समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin election, with Die Linke and CDU trading narrow leads near 20 percent, followed closely by AfD and the Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member system’s 78 constituencies, creates uncertainty over direct-mandate wins that trigger overhang and leveling seats beyond the 130 statutory minimum. Traders assign the highest probabilities to totals below 148 because current surveys suggest limited constituency overperformance by any single party relative to list shares, producing only modest expansion. Shifts in late turnout, constituency-level swings, or threshold crossings could alter the overhang calculation and widen the range.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$2,119समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin election, with Die Linke and CDU trading narrow leads near 20 percent, followed closely by AfD and the Greens, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the five-percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member system’s 78 constituencies, creates uncertainty over direct-mandate wins that trigger overhang and leveling seats beyond the 130 statutory minimum. Traders assign the highest probabilities to totals below 148 because current surveys suggest limited constituency overperformance by any single party relative to list shares, producing only modest expansion. Shifts in late turnout, constituency-level swings, or threshold crossings could alter the overhang calculation and widen the range.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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