Trader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$43,195 वॉल्यूम
$43,195 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
हाँ
$43,195 वॉल्यूम
$43,195 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$43,195समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$43,195समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 74% implied probability for a Democratic blue wave—defined as holding 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-2026 midterms—driven by sustained leads on the generic congressional ballot averaging 5-10 points in recent CNN/SSRS, Harvard CAPS/Harris, and Emerson polls. President Trump's approval has slipped to 34-40% amid Post-ABC-Ipsos and Pew surveys showing record-high disapproval, fueling anti-incumbent sentiment akin to 2018's opposition surge. Democrats overperformed in April-May special elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan battlegrounds, bolstering momentum against Republicans' slim majorities. Historical midterm patterns disadvantage the president's party, with primaries through summer potentially clarifying competitive races in swing states ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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