Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -12 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -12 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$33,778 वॉल्यूम
$33,778 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
6%
$33,778 वॉल्यूम
$33,778 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$20,165 वॉल्यूम
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$13,612 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$33,778समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$33,778समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic East Bay seat with an 84.5% Democratic presidential vote share in 2024, which underpins the market's 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. With the June 2 top-two primary three weeks away, Simon maintains a strong fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jamie Joyce, while the sole Republican candidate has withdrawn, ensuring the general election pits two Democrats against each other in a district rated Safe Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects the district's entrenched partisan lean and incumbency advantages. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a late-breaking scandal involving both Democratic candidates, an unexpected GOP write-in effort, or a historic national Republican midterm wave large enough to overcome the area's structural Democratic majority.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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