Trump's consistent Truth Social activity, averaging just under 19 posts per day through the first four months of 2026, anchors the market around a weekly total near 150 for the May 12-19 window. A single late-night session on May 11-12 produced 55 posts in three hours, primarily attacking former President Obama with conspiracy claims and reposts, adding substantial volume early in the period without triggering further comparable bursts. Subsequent days have shown steadier output aligned with the established baseline, including routine commentary on policy and opponents. This pattern supports the 140-159 range as the dominant outcome among traders, while lower and higher buckets reflect the low but nonzero chance of either a quieter close or another concentrated spree before the period ends.