The Democratic Party of Korea’s August 2026 leadership convention stands as the central driver behind traders’ assessment that Jung Chung-rae faces an elevated risk of departing the chairmanship before year-end. Internal divisions between Jung’s supporters and the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction have surfaced repeatedly during the run-up to the June 3 local elections, with Jung’s campaign appearances and public statements drawing criticism for creating unnecessary friction inside the ruling party. Historical patterns show that South Korean party chairs who encounter resistance at national conventions rarely retain their posts when rival factions mobilize effectively. The convention’s timing, combined with ongoing speculation over potential challengers and the party’s post-election performance review, accounts for the market’s current implied probability that a leadership transition will occur within the resolution window.