Mike Collins leads the Georgia Republican Senate primary with 54.5% implied probability due to his consistent polling edge, superior fundraising, and established congressional profile ahead of the May 19 vote. Derek Dooley has narrowed the gap to 41.7% after securing Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s endorsement, which fueled recent gains in surveys like the Quantus Insights poll showing Dooley at 22.5% behind Collins at 32.6%. The race features heavy ad spending by Earl “Buddy” Carter and public exchanges between the two sitting representatives in recent debates, while Dooley has positioned himself as an outsider through joint appearances with Kemp across the state. High undecided voter shares and no candidate approaching 50% raise the likelihood of a June 16 runoff, keeping both frontrunners’ prospects fluid until primary results are certified.