Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to peak temperatures of 35–38°C in Chengdu on July 6, reflecting the narrow range typical for early-July conditions in the Sichuan Basin. This subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and topographic trapping of warm, moist air, which amplifies daytime heating under clear skies while frequent afternoon thunderstorms can moderate maxima. Current short-term model guidance and seasonal analogs point to highs near 35°C, with slight upward shifts possible if high-pressure ridging strengthens or cloud cover decreases; conversely, enhanced monsoon moisture or convective activity would favor the lower end. Urban heat-island effects in the city center add a small but consistent warming bias, and resolution hinges on official station readings distinguishing these close thresholds.