Cooler northeasterly flow and persistent cloud cover are the dominant factors anchoring trader consensus around a 64–65°F high for New York City on September 22. Recent northerly winds following mid-September rain have advected cooler maritime air, with National Weather Service guidance and multiple models showing highs in the low-to-mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies and a 50–70% chance of light rain or showers that further limit daytime warming. This setup aligns with climatological norms for late September under post-frontal conditions, where reduced insolation and onshore flow typically cap maxima near 64°F. Minor spread in forecasts (62–67°F range) stems from uncertainty in exact shower timing and any partial afternoon clearing, keeping 62–63°F and 66–67°F as secondary outcomes while sharply discounting warmer or much cooler scenarios. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities.