Recent high-temperature yellow warnings from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and ensemble model guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight subsidence under a strengthening ridge, favoring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies on August 25 with reduced shower chances. This setup supports surface heating toward 35–37°C, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach 32–34°C but extremes frequently exceed 36°C during similar patterns. Minor model spread on boundary-layer moisture and localized convection introduces uncertainty around the precise maximum, explaining the closely matched 33% and 29.5% implied probabilities for 37°C and 36°C versus lower odds for 38°C or below. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine these temperature thresholds.