Recent enforcement trends under the Trump administration show interior removals stabilizing near 400,000–500,000 annually after a sharp 2025 increase, with ICE arrests moderating from December peaks and detention capacity strained despite new facilities. Budget targets of one million deportations per year remain in place, yet logistical hurdles including court backlogs, limited international repatriation agreements, and slower-than-expected scaling of operations have kept actual pace closer to fiscal 2025 figures. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 300–400k and 400–500k brackets because these ranges align with current removal rates and projected modest gains from ongoing priorities on criminal noncitizens, while lower or higher outcomes hinge on whether enforcement accelerates or encounters further constraints before year-end.