SpaceX’s ongoing transition to Starship V3 hardware, featuring Raptor 3 engines and a new Boca Chica launch pad, remains the main driver keeping the market-implied probability of fewer than five space-reaching flights in 2026 near 50 percent. As of mid-May, only the twelfth integrated test flight has been scheduled, with Flight 12 now targeted for late May after earlier delays from booster damage and licensing reviews. Traders see the combination of incremental flight profiles, FAA approval timelines, and the need to demonstrate propellant transfer later this year as significant barriers to rapid cadence. While successful V3 milestones could unlock more attempts by year-end, historical patterns of testing setbacks and regulatory scrutiny continue to anchor sentiment toward a modest total for the full calendar year.