Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, with IAEA verification activities halted afterward and inspectors withdrawn. These actions, combined with a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirming no nuclear weapons pursuit and assessments showing no active weapons-development work, have extended Iran's breakout timeline well beyond the remaining months of 2026. Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a nuclear device before 2027 reflects this degraded infrastructure and ongoing diplomatic constraints. Even so, limited satellite indications of rebuilding efforts or an undetected decision to accelerate weaponization using existing enriched uranium stockpiles represent low-probability paths that could still shift the outcome before year-end.