US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.