Persistent southwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover with showers have moderated overnight radiative cooling across the Amsterdam region, supporting minimum temperatures clustered near 16–17 °C according to consensus model guidance and station observations. High humidity and light-to-moderate winds limit the drop below the dew point, while urban effects and residual heat from daytime showers further constrain cooling. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–17 °C reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of the final precipitation pulse and boundary-layer mixing before the daily minimum is recorded. Lower probabilities assigned to 14 °C or below align with the absence of clear-sky conditions or northerly advection that would be needed for stronger nocturnal cooling. Updated short-range model runs and official station readings through the evening will determine whether the realized low settles at 15, 16, or 17 °C.