Recent short-range forecasts from European models, including ECMWF and DWD integrations, indicate Munich overnight lows near 11–12°C on October 3 under cloudy conditions with light winds, keeping the minimum well above seasonal norms of about 8°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest but allow for 1–2°C variability tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. This positions the market-implied odds near 50% for extremes at 5°C or below versus 15°C or higher as a reflection of residual forecast uncertainty rather than model consensus, with single-degree outcomes clustered around 34% capturing the narrow central range traders currently favor ahead of the next model update cycle.