Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasts points to a minimum temperature in Qingdao near 19–21 °C on September 22, driven by persistent southerly flow advecting warm, moist air from the Yellow Sea and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated for late September, suppressing the typical seasonal drop, while weak pressure gradients limit cold-air intrusions from the north. The near-even split between the 23 °C-or-higher and 13 °C-or-below outcomes reflects trader emphasis on forecast spread—ensemble members diverge on exact wind backing and cloud timing that could raise or lower the minimum by several degrees—rather than any observed trend toward extremes. Updated runs expected before resolution will clarify whether onshore flow strengthens or a brief northerly shift develops.