**Persistent late-summer warmth in Taipei’s tropical climate keeps overnight lows anchored near 26°C.** Official Central Weather Bureau forecasts and international models (including ECMWF and GFS runs) project minimum temperatures of 25–27°C for August 30, consistent with the city’s August climatological average minimum of ~25°C and the absence of strong cooling influences such as typhoons, cold fronts, or clear radiative cooling under dry air. High humidity (often 80–95% overnight), light winds, and the urban heat island effect limit temperature drops, while daytime highs near 32–34°C sustain the warm boundary layer. Trader consensus at 92% implied probability for exactly 26°C reflects this model agreement and historical precedent, with only modest probability mass on 25°C. A realistic shift would require revised model guidance showing substantially stronger nocturnal cooling—such as unexpected heavy localized rainfall, clearer skies with lighter winds, or an unforecast synoptic change—though current observations and short-range guidance show no such signals.