The strong market consensus favoring "No" on a megaquake (typically magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by August 31 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of such events, which occur globally only once or twice per year on average according to USGS records. Recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or foreshock patterns indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones, with the latest notable event being a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia that fell short of megaquake thresholds. Historical frequency data and ongoing USGS aftershock forecasts reinforce low short-term odds over the remaining 19 days. A realistic challenge could arise from sudden stress release along high-risk faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, though current observations provide no supporting signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया31 अगस्त तक भूकंप आ जाएगा?
31 अगस्त तक भूकंप आ जाएगा?
हाँ
7% संभावना
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
हाँ
7% संभावना
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong market consensus favoring "No" on a megaquake (typically magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by August 31 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of such events, which occur globally only once or twice per year on average according to USGS records. Recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or foreshock patterns indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones, with the latest notable event being a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia that fell short of megaquake thresholds. Historical frequency data and ongoing USGS aftershock forecasts reinforce low short-term odds over the remaining 19 days. A realistic challenge could arise from sudden stress release along high-risk faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, though current observations provide no supporting signals.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,796समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The strong market consensus favoring "No" on a megaquake (typically magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by August 31 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of such events, which occur globally only once or twice per year on average according to USGS records. Recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or foreshock patterns indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones, with the latest notable event being a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia that fell short of megaquake thresholds. Historical frequency data and ongoing USGS aftershock forecasts reinforce low short-term odds over the remaining 19 days. A realistic challenge could arise from sudden stress release along high-risk faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, though current observations provide no supporting signals.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$2,796समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong market consensus favoring "No" on a megaquake (typically magnitude 8.0 or greater on the moment magnitude scale) by August 31 stems primarily from the statistical rarity of such events, which occur globally only once or twice per year on average according to USGS records. Recent monitoring shows no elevated seismic activity or foreshock patterns indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones, with the latest notable event being a magnitude 7.4 quake in Colombia that fell short of megaquake thresholds. Historical frequency data and ongoing USGS aftershock forecasts reinforce low short-term odds over the remaining 19 days. A realistic challenge could arise from sudden stress release along high-risk faults like Cascadia or the Japan Trench, though current observations provide no supporting signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न